Monday Jan 30, 2023

Thursday Night Football: Giants vs. Eagles DFS and Betting Advice

Football

Week 16 of the 2016 NFL season kicks off in Philadelphia on Thursday Night Football, when Carson Wentz and the Eagles host the NFC East rival New York Giants.카지노사이트

Wentz’s Eagles have been in a free fall since a promising 3-0 start, going 2-9 over their last 11 games and dropping each of their last five. The Giants got the leg up in this series with a 28-23 win over the Eagles in early November, but Philadelphia still enters the game with a 4-1 record in the series over the last five contests.

New York has been trending in a much different direction than the Eagles, as they got off to a slow 2-3 start to open the year, but have since rattled off an impressive 8-1 record. Eli Manning and co. have performed well in the passing game, while the Giants have gained serious steam as a potential Super Bowl contender behind a revitalized defense.

The G-Men have been borderline elite throughout most of 2016, as all four of their losses have come against teams with .500 or better records and they’ve also managed to sweep the 12-2 Dallas Cowboys. That makes the Giants the only team Dallas has fallen to in 2016, and potentially a very real threat to the NFC East title.

Dallas only needs one more win to secure their NFC East hardware, but if the G-Men win out and the ‘Boys collapse, the division crown would go back to New York. That’s not likely to happen, but that’s just one added storyline to an intense divisional clash on Thursday Night Football. More than that, there is a lot to consider for NFL betting and fantasy football purposes, so let’s dive in and see which way you’ll want to be leaning with your betting and DFS picks in week 16:

Spread
Giants -3
Eagles +3

Top betting sites like BetOnline aren’t giving a big spread here, as is the case often with divisional battles late in the year. The Eagles and Giants have a history of playing things fairly close, though, with the last game being decided by five points and five of the last seven contests being decided by eight points or fewer.

This series has been tight in general throughout history, too, with the Giants leading, 85-80-2. This is also a unique circumstance, as the Giants have division title hopes and obviously want to lock up a playoff spot, while the Eagles can really just play for pride and to spoil New York’s goals.

It’s been largely about development for the Eagles, who at this point want to accomplish two things: keep everyone healthy and make sure Carson Wentz is ready to take the league by storm in 2017. It’s hard to knock the latter notion, especially since there is a case for it already happening.

The Eagles have not completely caved as a team, despite losing each of their last five contests. Instead, they lost to the Redskins and Ravens by a combined five points. In fact, had they not gone for a 2-point conversion late last week, they could have brought Baltimore to overtime and potentially snapped their losing streak in an extra period.

That didn’t happen, but it’s still important to note the Eagles have been largely competitive lately and on the year, as a whole. In their 9 losses, the Eagles have lost by six points or fewer six times.

It’s been a little more glorious for the Giants, who are 9-1 in their last 10 games and have watched a merely decent defense slowly turn into one of the NFL’s best. Major offseason acquisitions in Olivier Vernon and Janoris Jenkins have panned out and suddenly the Giants are sporting the #3 scoring defense (allowing 17 points per game) in all of football.

The bad news, of course, is the Giants have remained suspect on the road (just 3-3 away from home). New York has also lost two straight in the City of Brotherly Love, as well as three of their last four at Philly.

Throw in a lethargic running game, and the Giants are always at risk of being shut down on offense. When that happens, their defense hasn’t exactly been able to get them out of big jams. That largely happened earlier in the year, however, and we’ve really only see their defense let them down in a tough road game in Pittsburgh.

For the most part, this Giants team has looked the part of a title contender and this feels like a bad spot for them to suddenly turn up lame. Not only do they need to keep winning to lock up a playoff spot, but they also have a slim chance at their division title. In addition, they did beat these Eagles already this year and aside from questionable road woes, they matchup well in this one.

The against the spread numbers work, as well, with the G-Men posting a solid 9-4 ATS record over their last 13 December games and a 4-0 run over their last four appearances on Thursday Night Football. On the flip side, Philly has been disastrous (1-4) against the spread in their last five TNF games, as well as 1-4 in their last five games ATS, overall.

This is a light spread, but we like the Giants to get the sweep here and stay in contention for the NFC East crown. New York also hasn’t reached 11 wins since 2008 and this team feels like they’re ready to rectify that. We can probably still expect a fairly tight game just because divisional games can be tough to predict, but New York will win and should cover.바카라사이트

Pick
Giants
23
Eagles
13
Moneyline
Giants -145
Eagles +125

We won’t waste much time on this game’s MoneyLine, as there just isn’t anything to get excited about. Philadelphia’s dominance in this matchup (4-1 in the last five meetings) feels bloated, seeing as the one New York win came against this exact team that has a rookie quarterback running the show.

This Giants team is very different, too. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. are really clicking in the air right now and the New York defense seems to get better every week. New York has too much in front of them to accomplish and it seem weird to get behind a sinking Eagles team that hasn’t won in over five weeks.

More importantly, the MoneyLine isn’t at all grabby for the Eagles. There is very little upside to go with an upset pick, so the play aligns with the spread here. We like the Giants overall and while the return on your investment isn’t great, it’s the safer play and the payout difference isn’t so wide that you’ll be swayed to bet on the Eagles.

If anything, you’re either going to avoid betting the MoneyLine or you’re betting hard on the Giants.

Total: 42

This is an interesting total, seeing as the most recent game between these two teams produced a solid 51 points. Of course, Philly is part of the problem here, as their offense is forever tough to trust with a rookie quarterback leading the way. Throw in New York’s rising defense, and it’s highly arguable the Eagles don’t put up a lot of points here.

That being said, the Eagles have safely crushed this low Total in 10 of their 14 games. The bigger problem could actually by the Giants, who have only topped the 42 Total five times in 2016. New York has really turned into a grind-it-out team lately, producing just 27 total points in their last two wins and failing to top 30 points at any point on the season.

New York wins with defense and ball control, which is odd since they have one of the worst running games (30th) in the entire league.

Ultimately, nothing about this game points to the Over. The Eagles really are only producing on offense when they are running the ball extremely well and this week they get a very tough run defense. There could be a good amount of turnovers in this game (and that could easily make the Total very dicey), but we have to assume two very average offenses continue to struggle against each other in a game where pride is on the line. We’re rolling with the Under.

Fantasy Football Advice

Given the low Total, a short week and the two teams we’re dealing with, it has to be obvious that this may not be the most ideal spot to get fantasy football production. Despite that harsh reality, you might need some guys from this game, whether it be for season long or daily fantasy football leagues. Let’s dive in and see which way you should be leaning.

Season Long

For season long fantasy football, the answers are pretty obvious. The Giants defend well and don’t give up many points, so if you can help it, you’re not using many Eagles here. Eli Manning is the easy call over Carson Wentz, Odell Beckham Jr. and maybe Sterling Shepard are the only wide receivers you want here and Zach Ertz is the only usable tight end in this game.

Those are all the easy (and right) calls, especially since since Will Tye hasn’t blown up and now he gets an Eagles defense that ranks #2 against fantasy tight ends on the year.

The tough call starts at running back, where Ryan Mathews goes up against a tough Giants defense that is #9 against fantasy backs in 2016 and #5 in the last four weeks. That means they’re getting better, so even though Mathews was a beast last week, he suddenly becomes a very tough guy to trust. Of course, if you’re using an Eagles running back, he is the pick, and not Darren Sproles.

Mathews is not a great pick here, but he probably wins over anyone else in this game, simply based on volume, talent and his potential to fall into a score. Your only other main option is Rashad Jennings, who doesn’t exactly have it easy against an Eagles run defense that ranks 12th against fantasy running backs.

Philly’s run defense has slipped dramatically during their losing streak, of course, but Jennings has topped 10 fantasy points just once in his last four games. The role is there (15+ touches in five of his last six games), but the production simply hasn’t been. Both running backs are scary to trust, but if you’re using any, lean on Mathews and then Jennings.

Both kickers (Robbie Gould and Caleb Sturgis) are in play in what should be a low-scoring defensive battle. Gould is the preferred option, of course.

Both defenses could easily end up paying off here, but New York’s has ranked very well and knows how to both get pressure on the quarterback and also stop the run. They’re the easy call here.

DFS

Odell Beckham Jr. is really the only obvious play in this game, and judging by the two short scores he snuck past the Eagles the first time he faced them, even he may not be a sure thing. TNF games are always dangerous for fantasy purposes and divisional matchups only make things worse.

Beckham is still a fine elite play in DFS leagues, but this game could otherwise be a fantasy disaster.

That being said, if you’re looking for cheap and/or contrarian options in this game, consider the following:

  • Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants ($4.4k)
  • Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles ($4k)
  • Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants ($4.6k)

It’s slim pickings, to be sure. It doesn’t make much sense to pay up for many guys, but luckily Eli Manning and ODB are really the only “expensive” players on Thursday night.

These other sleeper picks aren’t locks, but the top rushers from either side are in play. They are talented, they have big roles and they’re cheap. On a wide open week 16 daily fantasy football slate, those cheap plays could end up being huge for you.

Shepard is another cheap play to look at, as the Eagles will undoubtedly try to quiet Odell Beckham Jr. in this one – or at least contain him. Shepard has actually been really solid lately, having posted 10+ fantasy points in five of his last seven games. He put up a solid 14 fantasy points against these very Eagles earlier this year and with the defensive focus elsewhere, could end up being busy (and productive) year again. Of this trio, he’s probably our favorite pick due to stability, price and upside.

Hopefully our look at this week’s Thursday Night Football finds you with some DFS or NFL betting success. Enjoy the week’s 16 NFL games! 온라인카지노

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